* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082018 07/27/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 35 35 34 32 30 25 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 35 35 34 32 30 25 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 29 27 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 17 11 15 23 20 23 27 35 35 34 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 3 5 4 9 7 7 1 4 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 313 309 285 262 272 263 272 295 293 262 276 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.1 26.7 27.2 26.5 25.9 26.3 26.5 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 137 137 135 135 131 136 129 122 127 129 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -55.2 -55.3 -55.7 -55.8 -56.3 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 63 61 58 55 52 50 53 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -10 -11 -17 -12 -17 -11 -8 -1 -12 -2 -7 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 26 43 50 61 19 -1 1 8 3 -27 -13 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -20 -18 -13 -12 -13 -11 -7 -7 -3 -3 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1864 1952 2035 2091 2151 2251 2209 1994 1787 1572 1341 1113 886 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.0 127.3 128.5 129.5 130.6 132.4 134.2 136.1 138.0 140.0 142.2 144.4 146.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 20 8 5 3 4 4 13 2 0 1 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -21. -23. -23. -23. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -5. -10. -12. -15. -15. -16. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 126.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082018 EIGHT 07/27/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 14.1% 13.5% 9.7% 0.0% 9.9% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.1% 4.6% 3.3% 0.0% 3.3% 3.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082018 EIGHT 07/27/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##