* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 37 37 36 35 33 29 28 27 25 23 22 23 25 27 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 37 37 36 35 33 30 28 27 25 23 22 23 25 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 39 39 38 37 38 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 29 24 17 10 13 11 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -7 -2 3 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 358 1 354 314 245 216 330 329 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 25.2 26.1 24.8 23.7 20.7 11.5 8.8 5.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 107 115 104 97 83 67 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 91 96 89 83 74 65 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.7 -56.0 -56.5 -56.5 -56.5 -57.0 -56.7 -56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 3 2 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 59 61 61 59 46 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 13 11 11 10 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 26 34 33 35 22 -5 -46 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -1 19 36 37 3 5 12 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 -5 -5 0 -9 0 6 -1 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 674 626 555 469 406 305 251 19 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.7 37.7 38.6 39.6 40.6 42.6 44.8 47.1 49.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.5 64.8 64.2 63.3 62.5 60.0 57.1 54.3 51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 11 CX,CY: 7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -14. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -10. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 36.7 65.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.27 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.25 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 11.3% 7.7% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.6% 3.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/14/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 37 37 36 35 33 30 28 27 25 23 22 23 25 27 18HR AGO 35 34 35 34 34 33 32 30 27 25 24 22 20 19 20 22 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 29 28 26 23 21 20 18 16 15 16 18 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT