* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 47 45 47 45 42 37 39 41 44 45 46 46 47 49 V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 47 45 47 45 42 34 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 50 47 45 44 43 41 38 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 12 17 19 22 33 35 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 4 5 -2 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 284 270 276 286 269 274 274 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.3 26.4 26.6 27.1 27.1 27.7 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 118 120 122 128 129 136 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 118 120 122 128 129 136 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 -55.0 -54.7 -55.4 -54.8 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 56 55 53 49 48 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 10 8 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 55 54 46 45 44 41 36 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 1 24 45 16 20 46 47 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 8 10 9 16 4 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 772 760 775 741 607 452 338 134 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.7 15.8 17.0 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.7 53.0 54.6 56.2 59.8 63.7 67.9 72.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 16 17 19 20 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 2 2 6 17 15 26 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -10. -8. -10. -13. -18. -16. -14. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.7 50.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.56 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 9.8% 6.5% 4.9% 4.3% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.5% 2.3% 1.7% 1.5% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/07/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 51 48 47 45 47 45 42 34 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 51 50 48 50 48 45 37 33 32 31 30 30 30 30 30 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 48 50 48 45 37 33 32 31 30 30 30 30 30 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 45 43 40 32 28 27 26 25 25 25 25 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT