* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 55 57 59 59 58 57 58 61 64 67 70 75 80 84 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 55 57 59 59 58 57 58 61 64 67 70 75 80 84 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 57 60 63 65 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 4 4 11 17 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 2 -1 -1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 80 58 355 337 289 318 293 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.1 25.8 26.1 26.3 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 111 112 113 115 113 117 119 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 109 110 110 112 111 117 119 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 -54.6 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 60 58 59 52 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 8 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 57 63 57 50 44 29 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 21 8 -10 7 0 -23 -10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -7 -4 -1 -1 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1201 1132 1074 1031 991 917 878 728 529 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.4 13.3 14.1 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.3 43.4 44.5 45.6 46.6 48.8 51.8 55.2 58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 13 16 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 2 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12. 13. 16. 19. 22. 25. 30. 35. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.3 42.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 9.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.93 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 29.8% 24.5% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.3% 25.6% 27.5% 17.3% 3.8% 11.9% 2.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 3.1% 0.4% 5.6% 1.1% 0.7% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 18.6% 19.2% 12.5% 1.5% 4.6% 0.7% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/05/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 55 57 59 59 58 57 58 61 64 67 70 75 80 84 18HR AGO 45 44 48 50 52 54 54 53 52 53 56 59 62 65 70 75 79 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 47 47 46 45 46 49 52 55 58 63 68 72 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 39 39 38 37 38 41 44 47 50 55 60 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT