* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 41 34 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 48 41 34 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 47 40 34 29 23 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 4 8 12 16 17 29 33 34 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 9 13 10 5 4 3 0 -2 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 257 236 214 233 246 231 240 246 251 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.0 22.4 21.4 22.1 21.1 21.3 21.7 22.6 22.3 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 93 87 76 84 73 75 78 87 84 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 57 54 51 44 38 32 29 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 26 25 23 20 18 15 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -5 -4 3 -12 -22 -14 -5 -9 -21 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 9 2 5 0 8 6 9 -15 -23 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 24 28 23 24 18 19 22 16 10 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1328 1372 1429 1495 1568 1647 1721 1832 1861 1718 1595 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.6 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.7 24.6 25.4 25.9 26.1 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.8 126.0 127.2 128.4 129.5 131.8 133.9 136.1 138.0 139.6 141.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. -25. -30. -34. -38. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -19. -20. -22. -23. -25. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -18. -24. -29. -31. -30. -27. -24. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -26. -34. -41. -48. -57. -67. -76. -78. -80. -83. -87. -94. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.9 124.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 333.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##