* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP052018 06/25/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 38 37 33 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 38 37 33 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 39 38 34 29 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 2 2 3 8 7 9 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 2 2 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 33 12 344 295 273 238 238 195 187 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 25.8 25.0 24.3 24.1 23.8 23.1 22.7 22.6 22.7 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 121 112 105 102 100 92 88 88 89 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 56 52 49 48 47 49 48 46 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 10 11 12 11 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 22 21 21 26 28 28 40 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 1 8 -1 -20 -16 -16 -15 -7 -21 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 2 1 3 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 890 876 849 852 861 950 1058 1161 1307 1477 1668 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.4 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.9 117.4 118.0 118.6 120.1 121.7 123.3 125.2 127.1 129.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -7. -8. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -2. -3. -7. -12. -19. -25. -30. -36. -37. -39. -40. -41. -42. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.5 116.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052018 DANIEL 06/25/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052018 DANIEL 06/25/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##