* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL192017 11/09/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 45 46 45 42 37 31 26 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 45 46 45 42 37 31 26 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 38 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 32 37 39 41 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 8 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 240 229 239 234 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 11.9 11.2 11.1 11.5 8.7 10.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 69 71 72 74 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 67 69 71 72 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -59.6 -60.5 -61.2 -61.7 -61.8 -59.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 71 65 60 58 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 25 22 17 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 42 7 -23 -28 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 102 115 93 35 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 76 72 66 56 -19 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 522 573 709 1075 1452 947 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.6 45.9 48.3 50.6 52.9 57.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.1 45.7 43.3 38.4 33.5 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 29 34 39 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 17 CX,CY: 1/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 814 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 5. 6. 6. -2. -12. -22. -30. -39. -47. -56. -68. -76. -79. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 21. 27. 33. 38. 41. 44. 47. 49. 50. 47. 45. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. -3. -9. -12. -15. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. -9. -14. -17. -23. -30. -37. -45. -51. -57. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 43.6 48.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 RINA 11/09/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 RINA 11/09/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 RINA 11/09/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 45 46 45 42 37 31 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 44 45 44 41 36 30 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 36 33 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT