* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/15/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 72 69 63 48 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 74 72 69 63 40 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 75 71 65 56 34 30 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 34 43 42 39 33 38 47 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 7 5 3 1 -2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 193 185 175 177 197 224 241 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.5 19.9 17.9 16.5 13.9 13.2 12.7 11.8 5.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 90 85 80 77 73 70 67 65 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 80 75 73 70 67 64 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -53.8 -52.9 -54.6 -56.1 -56.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.4 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 48 48 50 47 45 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 38 45 48 45 35 23 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 68 52 26 25 23 -44 -93 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 7 60 92 99 46 5 -2 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -51 -87 -95 -115 -99 -8 -21 -10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 674 469 405 382 68 36 16 241 183 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.1 42.8 45.5 48.2 50.9 55.2 57.9 59.6 61.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 16.9 14.8 12.8 11.1 9.4 5.8 2.6 0.5 -1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 31 30 29 27 20 13 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 27 CX,CY: 21/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -26. -35. -44. -51. -56. -60. -64. -67. -69. -70. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -21. -26. -26. -28. -32. -37. -42. -46. -48. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. 22. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 6. 9. 8. 1. -12. -31. -44. -46. -48. -49. -49. -47. -46. -43. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -11. -17. -32. -52. -77. -92. -94. -98.-101.-105.-112.-115.-119.-124. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 40.1 16.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/15/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/15/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 74 72 69 63 40 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 77 74 68 45 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 73 67 44 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 64 41 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT