* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/15/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 79 76 72 55 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 85 79 76 72 46 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 85 81 74 66 41 33 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 33 41 48 44 35 36 44 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 10 7 4 0 1 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 209 198 189 177 197 213 233 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.7 21.6 20.0 18.0 16.5 13.5 13.0 12.7 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 91 85 80 77 71 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 84 80 76 73 68 65 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -53.4 -54.2 -55.6 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 47 46 47 51 51 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 39 46 48 41 28 18 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 119 96 65 55 28 32 -11 -95 -107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 31 17 59 91 83 33 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -62 -59 -96 -105 -119 10 -26 -14 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 919 717 506 444 396 -48 -22 90 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.0 40.4 42.7 45.5 48.2 53.2 56.6 58.7 60.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 19.7 17.5 15.3 13.5 11.7 8.3 5.3 2.7 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 28 29 29 30 28 23 16 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 29 CX,CY: 25/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -15. -22. -31. -42. -53. -62. -68. -72. -76. -80. -81. -82. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -16. -21. -23. -25. -29. -28. -28. -31. -34. -38. -40. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 24. 23. 20. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 9. 11. 7. -6. -19. -37. -39. -41. -42. -42. -40. -39. -38. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -14. -18. -35. -56. -76. -98.-100.-103.-106.-110.-115.-118.-121.-127. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 38.0 19.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/15/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -9.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/15/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 7( 18) 4( 21) 0( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 85 79 76 72 46 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 83 80 76 50 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 83 79 53 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 76 50 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 45 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 85 76 70 67 48 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT