* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/12/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 78 76 76 72 73 79 80 85 80 69 55 52 51 49 45 V (KT) LAND 75 77 78 76 76 72 73 79 80 85 80 69 55 52 51 49 45 V (KT) LGEM 75 77 78 77 75 73 72 76 78 73 57 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 16 20 15 13 9 32 40 29 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -5 -2 4 9 1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 347 25 350 340 353 341 329 244 197 173 148 172 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.0 25.5 24.9 23.8 22.0 19.8 16.1 13.2 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 111 111 113 111 107 100 91 84 76 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 93 94 94 97 97 96 91 84 78 72 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -56.9 -56.4 -56.4 -56.6 -56.0 -56.3 -55.7 -54.6 -53.5 -53.2 -52.3 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.6 3.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 49 50 51 52 54 48 51 57 63 62 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 24 26 24 25 29 35 46 47 42 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -4 -8 -8 0 22 78 123 119 88 78 79 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 -3 -17 -16 -30 -6 48 59 35 44 84 54 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 0 5 15 -1 -37 -138 -134 -99 -14 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2086 2065 2045 1989 1952 1806 1593 1358 949 580 390 0 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 30.5 30.7 31.1 31.4 32.4 34.0 36.1 39.4 43.8 48.7 53.9 59.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.7 35.4 35.0 34.4 33.8 31.6 28.2 24.2 20.2 16.2 12.9 10.0 7.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 8 13 18 21 24 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -12. -17. -22. -28. -32. -37. -42. -45. -47. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 1. -2. -1. 3. 11. 25. 26. 18. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 1. 1. -3. -2. 4. 5. 10. 5. -6. -20. -23. -24. -26. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.2 35.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 471.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 5.3% 3.2% 1.0% 0.4% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 5( 15) 4( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 78 76 76 72 73 79 80 85 80 69 55 52 51 49 45 18HR AGO 75 74 75 73 73 69 70 76 77 82 77 66 52 49 48 46 42 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 69 65 66 72 73 78 73 62 48 45 44 42 38 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 61 62 68 69 74 69 58 44 41 40 38 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT