* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/06/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 52 54 60 63 68 70 66 58 48 35 22 20 19 17 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 52 51 56 60 45 33 29 29 31 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 49 49 54 59 46 32 29 29 29 29 26 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 9 10 9 7 7 10 19 35 55 60 76 69 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 -2 0 -4 1 0 3 5 -1 -5 -10 -4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 108 80 90 62 42 323 269 251 246 260 278 285 274 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.6 29.0 27.6 28.8 28.2 27.1 26.8 24.3 23.0 17.8 16.9 15.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 160 165 155 134 151 142 128 126 104 96 77 75 72 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 163 160 164 153 129 141 129 115 114 94 86 72 71 69 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.5 -53.5 -54.2 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 7 8 6 8 3 5 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 82 82 79 77 76 69 67 59 55 50 48 60 65 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 18 19 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 190 183 144 109 73 18 -8 -16 -36 9 -9 -24 -5 20 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 98 99 76 57 51 51 81 68 56 39 41 12 19 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 -11 -10 -2 -3 8 33 44 21 -1 17 26 5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 36 193 147 16 68 394 38 -118 -479 -437 -139 6 29 180 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.6 19.0 20.6 22.2 25.5 28.7 31.8 34.9 38.0 40.3 41.9 43.5 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.8 85.5 86.1 87.0 87.8 89.2 89.2 88.0 85.2 80.9 75.9 70.5 65.0 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 17 18 18 16 16 18 21 23 22 22 22 21 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 82 101 47 17 28 35 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 18. 16. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. -1. -10. -21. -34. -38. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 14. 20. 24. 28. 30. 26. 18. 8. -5. -18. -20. -21. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.2 84.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/06/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.82 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.76 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.53 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 44.8% 30.6% 16.6% 10.9% 22.3% 25.6% 30.3% Logistic: 15.3% 39.0% 28.1% 21.1% 6.5% 19.5% 28.6% 18.4% Bayesian: 4.9% 6.4% 12.0% 5.5% 3.0% 10.3% 7.8% 3.5% Consensus: 11.9% 30.1% 23.6% 14.4% 6.8% 17.4% 20.7% 17.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/06/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/06/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 47 52 51 56 60 45 33 29 29 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 43 48 47 52 56 41 29 25 25 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 40 45 49 34 22 18 18 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 34 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT