* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/28/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 73 66 60 54 43 44 37 32 29 27 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 73 66 60 54 43 44 37 32 29 27 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 73 67 62 57 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 41 40 34 32 25 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 1 2 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 9 5 10 2 341 288 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 26.5 25.4 21.3 19.4 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 123 114 91 85 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 118 112 105 85 80 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 5 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 49 55 57 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 16 14 13 13 10 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -139 -144 -77 -57 -35 -12 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -7 28 21 33 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 18 30 49 33 -28 -132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1273 1169 1045 869 772 1060 1537 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.3 35.8 37.3 39.1 40.9 44.9 48.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.6 55.0 53.4 50.6 47.8 39.6 31.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 24 28 32 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 9 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -14. -20. -25. -30. -33. -36. -39. -42. -44. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -19. -21. -23. -23. -24. -26. -28. -30. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -20. -26. -37. -36. -43. -48. -51. -53. -56. -62. -69. -73. -77. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 34.3 56.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/28/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 620.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/28/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/28/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 3( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 73 66 60 54 43 44 37 32 29 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 72 66 60 49 50 43 38 35 33 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 70 64 53 54 47 42 39 37 34 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 64 53 54 47 42 39 37 34 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT