* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/24/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 94 95 94 94 93 85 82 76 70 60 52 46 44 36 22 N/A V (KT) LAND 95 94 95 94 94 93 85 82 76 70 60 52 46 44 36 22 N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 93 90 88 87 88 84 77 70 65 60 55 51 50 47 39 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 11 9 9 12 14 12 15 10 10 13 14 49 75 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -2 1 3 4 -3 -1 0 9 11 18 21 23 17 22 SHEAR DIR 238 194 242 297 309 328 308 306 297 294 340 290 282 224 218 202 181 SST (C) 28.7 28.0 27.4 27.7 28.3 28.2 27.5 27.2 26.8 25.9 25.7 25.2 26.0 26.4 23.8 13.7 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 135 127 131 139 137 128 124 119 110 109 105 118 123 102 75 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 115 108 110 116 113 105 101 97 91 91 89 106 112 92 72 76 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.5 -50.3 -50.6 -50.3 -49.9 -49.7 -49.2 -49.4 -49.5 -50.0 -50.4 -50.5 -49.8 -49.0 -47.8 -48.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.3 2.2 1.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 7 5 7 5 3 1 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 56 54 56 57 63 64 64 60 58 47 40 41 32 33 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 41 44 42 43 45 43 44 43 44 41 38 35 34 31 26 21 850 MB ENV VOR 53 70 79 84 91 86 73 90 66 60 54 93 89 74 145 153 28 200 MB DIV 66 81 59 43 34 40 33 21 23 8 33 -4 33 38 35 23 32 700-850 TADV 14 9 4 12 15 17 19 10 5 5 13 27 21 33 -51 -118 -174 LAND (KM) 735 721 652 595 538 435 359 294 253 275 365 517 593 707 615 408 1036 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 29.1 29.7 30.3 30.8 31.9 32.8 33.7 34.4 35.0 35.5 36.0 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.8 72.9 73.0 73.1 73.2 73.3 73.4 73.5 73.4 72.8 71.7 70.0 68.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 5 6 7 22 26 25 35 37 HEAT CONTENT 29 18 13 18 25 22 15 12 7 0 1 0 1 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -22. -29. -37. -42. -47. -50. -53. -56. -59. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 7. 0. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 1. -0. -1. -6. -10. -14. -16. -20. -25. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -10. -13. -19. -25. -35. -43. -49. -51. -59. -73. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 28.4 72.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 540.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.2% 10.2% 8.4% 6.0% 2.1% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 3.4% 2.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/24/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 17( 31) 16( 42) 14( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 31 0( 31) 0( 31) 0( 31) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 94 95 94 94 93 85 82 76 70 60 52 46 44 36 22 DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 95 94 94 93 85 82 76 70 60 52 46 44 36 22 DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 90 90 89 81 78 72 66 56 48 42 40 32 18 DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 84 76 73 67 61 51 43 37 35 27 DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 75 67 64 58 52 42 34 28 26 18 DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 94 85 79 76 75 67 64 58 52 42 34 28 26 18 DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 94 95 86 80 76 68 65 59 53 43 35 29 27 19 DIS DIS