* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 110 108 109 105 108 107 108 104 101 95 94 90 84 75 70 V (KT) LAND 110 111 110 108 109 105 108 107 108 104 101 95 94 90 84 75 70 V (KT) LGEM 110 111 111 111 110 109 108 103 93 85 79 76 73 70 69 67 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 16 12 16 17 10 9 9 12 17 14 16 11 11 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 9 8 5 -2 2 2 2 3 -1 0 -6 -8 -4 4 11 SHEAR DIR 252 245 237 223 212 212 243 262 251 302 295 289 234 249 276 350 323 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 28.6 27.6 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.6 25.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 161 163 165 165 144 130 125 124 121 120 117 117 109 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 143 145 146 146 143 123 110 105 104 101 98 94 95 91 103 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.2 -49.8 -49.7 -49.3 -49.3 -49.3 -49.8 -49.2 -50.0 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.3 1.5 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 56 58 60 65 65 64 64 61 59 59 60 62 62 64 57 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 30 34 37 41 41 44 45 46 46 48 47 45 42 41 850 MB ENV VOR 60 42 30 43 47 31 38 34 62 84 104 123 129 136 122 85 62 200 MB DIV 77 71 64 90 99 83 104 74 50 29 24 45 59 38 -9 -17 13 700-850 TADV 8 10 19 22 13 11 11 12 5 7 10 14 10 3 8 12 31 LAND (KM) 121 189 256 333 411 571 707 794 765 703 662 630 608 622 593 527 679 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.5 22.1 22.8 23.5 25.0 26.5 27.9 29.1 30.2 31.2 32.2 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.0 70.4 70.8 71.1 71.5 71.9 72.1 72.1 71.9 71.3 70.8 70.3 69.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 1 3 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 58 66 74 72 66 44 43 33 31 22 16 11 12 10 9 1 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -15. -24. -32. -38. -43. -48. -54. -58. -62. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -8. -11. -8. -4. -0. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 3. 6. 11. 12. 16. 17. 19. 18. 19. 16. 13. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -1. -5. -2. -3. -2. -6. -9. -15. -16. -20. -26. -35. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 20.8 70.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.42 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 547.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.36 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 16.9% 11.5% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 3.4% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 9.9% 3.1% 2.3% 1.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 7.8% 5.1% 3.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/22/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 28( 64) 27( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 88 63( 96) 77( 99) 57(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 111 110 108 109 105 108 107 108 104 101 95 94 90 84 75 70 18HR AGO 110 109 108 106 107 103 106 105 106 102 99 93 92 88 82 73 68 12HR AGO 110 107 106 104 105 101 104 103 104 100 97 91 90 86 80 71 66 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 101 97 100 99 100 96 93 87 86 82 76 67 62 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 87 90 89 90 86 83 77 76 72 66 57 52 IN 6HR 110 111 102 96 93 89 92 91 92 88 85 79 78 74 68 59 54 IN 12HR 110 111 110 101 95 91 94 93 94 90 87 81 80 76 70 61 56