* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 150 150 149 148 144 137 127 118 111 108 110 105 101 96 92 87 82 V (KT) LAND 150 150 149 124 132 124 115 106 98 96 97 93 88 83 79 75 69 V (KT) LGEM 150 148 142 119 126 120 117 113 108 107 104 98 92 86 80 74 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 6 1 12 8 10 12 16 16 13 14 19 16 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 0 4 6 9 5 1 0 6 9 3 5 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 165 235 277 314 302 307 278 245 229 258 252 285 271 306 315 272 238 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.6 29.2 29.5 29.3 29.3 28.6 27.8 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 151 154 154 153 152 152 151 144 154 159 156 157 145 133 123 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 142 145 144 142 139 138 136 129 136 139 135 136 124 111 103 104 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.4 -50.2 -49.6 -49.3 -48.8 -48.9 -48.7 -48.5 -48.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 57 58 54 58 63 65 65 66 66 66 68 68 63 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 30 30 33 30 32 32 34 37 41 46 46 45 44 46 47 46 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 47 51 64 56 58 50 66 50 68 57 56 66 63 69 88 200 MB DIV 77 46 39 26 23 31 66 85 105 65 121 48 47 23 39 75 69 700-850 TADV 5 4 4 4 3 5 6 17 9 18 19 14 18 10 7 5 -1 LAND (KM) 203 109 15 -17 35 77 113 237 378 543 684 772 725 525 509 334 331 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.7 20.7 21.9 23.2 24.7 26.2 27.7 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.3 65.0 65.8 66.5 67.3 68.6 69.7 70.5 71.1 71.6 72.0 72.3 72.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 65 64 61 52 50 51 55 72 69 51 37 39 41 26 15 4 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -16. -28. -44. -59. -71. -79. -83. -87. -91. -96. -99.-100. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 15. 21. 20. 17. 15. 15. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -22. -32. -39. -42. -40. -45. -49. -54. -58. -63. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 17.0 64.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 150.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 827.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -5.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.3% 7.6% 5.6% 2.9% 1.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.3% 4.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 4.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/20/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 78 78( 95) 45( 97) 36( 98) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 97 93(100) 93(100) 70(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 150 150 149 124 132 124 115 106 98 96 97 93 88 83 79 75 69 18HR AGO 150 149 148 123 131 123 114 105 97 95 96 92 87 82 78 74 68 12HR AGO 150 147 146 121 129 121 112 103 95 93 94 90 85 80 76 72 66 6HR AGO 150 144 141 140 148 140 131 122 114 112 113 109 104 99 95 91 85 NOW 150 141 135 132 131 123 114 105 97 95 96 92 87 82 78 74 68 IN 6HR 150 150 141 135 132 125 116 107 99 97 98 94 89 84 80 76 70 IN 12HR 150 150 149 140 134 130 121 112 104 102 103 99 94 89 85 81 75