* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/11/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 81 78 69 54 37 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 68 54 45 37 30 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 67 54 44 37 30 28 27 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 33 31 36 41 36 29 14 20 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 7 2 -1 -2 0 5 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 229 222 207 210 207 195 210 247 256 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.3 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.1 27.6 27.5 28.0 27.9 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 160 159 153 138 130 128 135 134 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 167 160 143 141 134 117 106 104 109 108 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.0 -50.2 -49.3 -48.8 -48.7 -49.0 -49.7 -50.3 -51.9 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.0 1.4 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.8 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 63 58 52 49 45 43 47 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 45 45 44 43 36 27 20 17 12 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 134 122 140 152 138 158 101 63 32 6 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 77 103 134 86 5 25 21 -7 -8 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 57 74 85 87 63 6 0 7 14 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -35 -23 -17 -65 -193 -355 -473 -585 -707 -839 -868 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 28.1 29.3 30.6 31.8 33.7 35.0 36.0 37.1 38.4 39.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.3 82.8 83.7 84.6 86.6 87.9 88.3 87.9 86.7 85.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 14 11 6 5 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 49 33 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -10. -15. -20. -24. -26. -29. -31. -33. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -18. -25. -27. -23. -20. -18. -16. -16. -15. -15. -14. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -7. -16. -29. -36. -46. -51. -60. -61. -61. -58. -57. -54. -52. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -12. -21. -36. -53. -62. -71. -77. -85. -84. -84. -84. -86. -86. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 26.8 81.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/11/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/11/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/11/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 68 54 45 37 30 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 75 66 58 51 49 48 48 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 90 87 86 77 69 62 60 59 59 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 72 65 63 62 62 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 64 62 61 61 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT