* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/09/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 124 118 113 110 100 90 83 77 77 80 86 83 89 87 91 91 V (KT) LAND 130 124 118 113 110 100 90 83 77 77 80 86 83 89 87 91 91 V (KT) LGEM 130 123 116 110 105 99 95 91 86 83 82 81 81 84 88 94 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 13 12 12 21 27 22 18 18 17 9 16 3 9 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 7 6 4 5 1 7 5 4 5 8 0 8 -1 2 5 SHEAR DIR 250 250 248 264 314 1 25 32 8 8 17 359 345 24 345 318 281 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 146 149 151 157 157 159 161 161 160 158 160 164 157 163 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 140 142 143 147 142 140 138 136 136 133 135 148 134 143 139 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -50.3 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 -49.5 -50.0 -49.4 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 10 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 58 55 52 56 57 59 64 65 61 55 57 54 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 24 28 26 30 30 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -7 -4 -7 -26 -58 -72 -79 -78 -55 -45 -31 -50 -26 -14 -11 -19 200 MB DIV 43 48 27 5 -6 -8 -31 -43 -26 5 16 16 1 1 -17 24 6 700-850 TADV 8 16 13 11 12 12 11 15 13 12 11 10 8 2 -9 0 5 LAND (KM) 636 521 412 320 267 335 470 561 671 754 834 916 998 719 531 750 815 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.2 19.9 21.5 23.1 24.5 25.6 26.3 26.9 27.4 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.8 60.8 61.8 62.8 63.8 65.7 67.2 68.2 68.5 68.2 67.6 66.7 65.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 7 4 3 5 4 5 11 3 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 51 48 54 58 54 59 48 57 49 44 36 31 34 46 56 47 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -17. -29. -38. -46. -52. -56. -59. -62. -64. -65. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -11. -13. -17. -20. -16. -12. -7. -2. 2. 6. 11. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -2. 1. 6. 3. 7. 5. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -20. -30. -40. -47. -53. -53. -50. -44. -47. -41. -43. -39. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 17.2 59.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 781.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/09/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/09/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 32( 61) 29( 72) 22( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 51 51( 76) 32( 84) 4( 84) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 124 118 113 110 100 90 83 77 77 80 86 83 89 87 91 91 18HR AGO 130 129 123 118 115 105 95 88 82 82 85 91 88 94 92 96 96 12HR AGO 130 127 126 121 118 108 98 91 85 85 88 94 91 97 95 99 99 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 117 107 97 90 84 84 87 93 90 96 94 98 98 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 101 91 84 78 78 81 87 84 90 88 92 92 IN 6HR 130 124 115 109 106 100 90 83 77 77 80 86 83 89 87 91 91 IN 12HR 130 124 118 109 103 99 89 82 76 76 79 85 82 88 86 90 90