* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/08/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 139 142 146 146 144 141 137 129 116 92 73 61 55 51 47 39 V (KT) LAND 140 139 142 146 146 144 141 87 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 140 138 137 139 141 141 139 89 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 4 6 9 15 21 31 42 47 46 42 42 48 47 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 -1 -1 2 3 0 7 4 -7 -1 3 1 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 249 291 318 301 282 302 258 242 224 203 214 210 219 223 230 228 230 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.1 29.8 30.0 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 168 171 171 170 171 171 167 171 154 149 141 143 146 147 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 156 156 161 163 155 153 153 148 149 131 125 110 115 117 118 117 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -49.7 -49.5 -49.0 -48.6 -48.2 -47.7 -48.4 -49.3 -49.6 -50.5 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.4 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 14 13 12 10 7 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 700-500 MB RH 55 56 58 58 61 62 62 63 57 51 49 44 44 40 37 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 38 41 41 44 48 50 51 46 32 22 16 12 10 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 58 63 82 86 99 106 140 147 132 174 165 131 75 42 30 6 -27 200 MB DIV 38 23 49 50 11 67 86 61 89 125 29 24 -9 15 8 18 11 700-850 TADV 3 9 4 6 5 10 21 40 70 60 28 -4 0 -5 -7 0 6 LAND (KM) 178 140 119 107 80 88 65 -77 -89 -117 -312 -482 -642 -584 -458 -413 -372 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.7 23.4 24.7 26.4 28.5 30.8 32.9 34.7 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.2 74.4 75.6 76.6 77.7 79.3 80.3 80.9 81.8 83.0 84.4 85.9 87.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 10 12 12 11 11 3 5 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 67 65 53 54 64 63 50 42 12 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -15. -27. -37. -46. -53. -59. -64. -71. -75. -78. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 5. 7. 5. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 7. 12. 16. 18. 12. -8. -24. -32. -37. -38. -39. -41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 2. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -11. -24. -47. -67. -79. -85. -89. -93.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 21.5 73.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 824.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 2.9% 1.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/08/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/08/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 59( 81) 71( 95) 67( 98) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 93 99(100) 99(100) 97(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 139 142 146 146 144 141 87 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 140 139 142 146 146 144 141 87 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 140 137 136 140 140 138 135 81 41 27 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 130 128 125 71 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 140 131 125 122 121 119 116 62 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 140 139 130 124 121 118 115 61 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 140 139 142 133 127 123 120 66 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS