* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL132017 09/08/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 73 74 73 68 63 62 63 64 64 64 64 65 65 66 68 V (KT) LAND 70 71 73 74 73 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 70 70 69 50 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 7 4 3 1 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 243 292 30 270 21 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 28.5 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 159 158 156 142 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 141 141 139 128 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 8 10 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 71 71 70 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -4 3 -7 -10 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 37 34 36 41 43 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 6 2 1 3 -4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 227 199 165 111 56 -65 -189 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.4 21.2 21.0 20.7 20.0 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.3 95.5 96.0 96.4 97.3 98.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 61 60 55 46 36 16 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -10. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. -26. -26. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 3. -2. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.6 95.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/08/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 8.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.86 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.1% 40.3% 31.6% 24.5% 20.1% 22.6% 13.5% 15.6% Logistic: 11.1% 47.3% 38.3% 33.4% 22.2% 28.0% 23.6% 19.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 10.2% 2.9% 1.5% 0.5% 3.1% 1.4% 6.2% Consensus: 10.5% 32.6% 24.3% 19.8% 14.3% 17.9% 12.9% 13.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/08/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/08/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 3( 5) 7( 12) 0( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 73 74 73 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 70 69 71 72 71 51 33 27 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 66 46 28 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 39 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT