* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LIDIA EP142017 09/02/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 45 41 36 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 39 35 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 36 38 36 31 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 13 13 10 6 8 14 25 31 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 1 -1 1 0 0 -2 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 253 267 284 283 240 172 163 154 138 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 24.8 23.2 21.7 20.6 21.0 20.4 18.9 18.8 17.6 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 111 94 79 67 72 66 61 61 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 3 4 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 59 58 58 56 53 50 46 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 20 19 17 14 12 13 12 14 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 27 12 13 0 -4 0 -2 -10 -9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 40 25 4 0 19 26 8 25 2 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -10 -9 -9 -6 -6 0 5 15 6 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 26 -6 -42 46 77 152 281 282 371 499 620 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.8 27.5 28.2 28.9 30.1 31.3 32.5 33.3 33.8 34.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.3 114.0 114.9 115.7 117.6 119.7 122.0 124.2 126.2 128.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. -26. -31. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. -3. -10. -15. -17. -18. -20. -22. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -12. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -4. -9. -16. -22. -31. -39. -45. -48. -53. -58. -63. -68. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.0 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142017 LIDIA 09/02/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142017 LIDIA 09/02/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##