* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102017 08/29/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 49 47 43 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 49 47 43 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 41 38 32 26 23 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 56 59 61 64 57 41 35 29 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 6 3 8 1 3 0 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 268 271 266 268 259 236 219 224 231 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 27.6 25.0 24.5 24.4 24.0 21.1 14.1 18.1 15.3 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 135 109 105 105 102 88 73 80 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 121 98 94 93 91 80 70 75 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.7 1.9 2.8 3.0 3.6 3.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 63 62 59 52 46 46 48 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 22 24 27 31 33 29 25 22 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 35 41 46 56 103 139 102 99 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 73 78 76 90 37 73 94 24 11 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 30 15 34 32 53 -15 -71 -55 -38 -18 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 40 239 346 349 400 431 420 403 865 1444 1014 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 36.6 37.8 38.8 39.7 41.2 43.0 45.0 47.3 49.8 52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.4 73.2 71.0 68.5 66.0 60.7 54.8 48.5 41.3 33.2 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 22 22 22 22 24 26 29 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 21 CX,CY: 16/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -11. -22. -30. -35. -39. -45. -52. -61. -67. -70. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 10. 5. 0. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 7. 3. -10. -21. -29. -39. -46. -54. -64. -72. -78. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.4 75.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102017 TEN 08/29/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 57.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102017 TEN 08/29/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102017 TEN 08/29/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 47 49 47 43 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 46 44 40 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 39 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT