* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102017 08/28/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 40 47 50 54 50 36 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 40 47 50 54 50 36 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 30 32 33 32 28 23 21 20 21 22 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 31 24 34 34 41 52 56 51 38 32 35 39 35 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 2 3 5 6 5 4 -1 4 0 -2 -4 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 301 280 270 267 253 263 249 248 240 249 254 272 283 294 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.1 28.6 26.7 24.9 24.3 18.3 17.8 17.5 14.6 15.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 149 145 141 149 125 108 104 79 78 78 75 76 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 124 128 128 126 124 131 110 96 92 74 73 74 72 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 2.1 3.2 2.8 2.4 1.3 1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 3 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 67 69 70 66 62 59 51 50 51 46 44 45 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 19 25 31 39 38 32 24 19 15 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -29 -6 7 0 30 35 48 72 83 91 96 72 52 34 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 39 49 43 28 91 92 93 55 61 62 27 -21 -16 19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 14 17 25 28 26 35 -17 -32 -27 -22 -18 -2 -11 -26 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 38 74 73 67 50 56 349 435 475 530 381 673 1083 1315 615 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.8 31.3 32.2 33.0 35.0 36.9 38.6 40.3 42.0 43.8 45.8 47.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.0 80.8 80.5 79.6 78.8 75.7 71.6 66.8 61.7 56.3 50.5 44.4 38.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 9 11 13 18 20 21 22 22 24 23 28 32 31 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 27 25 22 18 19 32 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 20. 19. 18. 16. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -12. -24. -32. -39. -45. -51. -60. -64. -67. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 12. 21. 32. 31. 22. 11. 3. -4. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 17. 20. 24. 20. 6. -8. -21. -35. -46. -50. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.3 81.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102017 TEN 08/28/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102017 TEN 08/28/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102017 TEN 08/28/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 40 47 50 54 50 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 38 45 48 52 48 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 34 41 44 48 44 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 33 36 40 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT