* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102017 08/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 37 38 44 50 52 50 37 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 37 38 44 50 52 50 37 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 34 34 34 34 36 39 40 36 30 26 24 23 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 44 36 31 28 36 37 48 45 53 41 36 37 38 40 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 0 1 1 1 4 2 10 2 -2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 299 295 271 269 266 258 263 255 243 247 248 271 292 318 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.2 28.5 25.5 25.0 26.5 20.3 16.9 19.0 15.8 15.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 151 149 149 142 147 113 109 123 84 76 81 76 77 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 125 125 127 125 129 100 97 108 78 71 75 72 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.1 1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 60 62 64 69 71 67 65 56 55 51 50 41 39 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 15 22 30 35 37 32 25 19 14 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -22 -15 -2 7 11 22 51 65 74 101 98 55 28 29 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 25 43 36 24 82 67 132 35 78 55 44 -26 -29 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 9 16 13 25 30 24 -2 -24 -23 -14 -12 14 10 12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 69 83 76 79 50 34 229 398 432 479 402 526 913 1435 941 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.8 31.1 31.8 32.4 34.4 36.5 38.2 39.8 41.4 43.1 45.1 47.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.7 80.7 80.6 80.1 79.5 77.0 73.3 68.9 63.9 58.4 52.6 46.7 40.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 8 11 17 19 20 22 23 23 23 25 29 33 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 26 25 22 22 18 18 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 20. 20. 18. 16. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -2. -12. -22. -31. -38. -44. -50. -59. -65. -68. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 8. 18. 26. 28. 20. 11. 1. -6. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 14. 20. 22. 20. 7. -7. -21. -35. -46. -48. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.4 80.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102017 TEN 08/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102017 TEN 08/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102017 TEN 08/28/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 36 37 38 44 50 52 50 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 34 40 46 48 46 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 35 41 43 41 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 28 34 36 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT