* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/24/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 60 66 79 86 85 78 72 64 62 59 56 52 56 52 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 60 66 79 86 67 42 32 28 27 27 29 23 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 57 64 78 88 72 43 32 28 27 27 30 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 4 8 8 3 10 9 24 21 30 25 31 26 39 35 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -2 -5 -3 0 0 -1 -5 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 250 261 176 183 224 252 279 281 256 230 241 225 233 240 253 247 264 SST (C) 30.3 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.4 30.2 29.6 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 30.5 30.5 30.8 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 171 171 170 170 160 167 167 163 163 161 158 169 169 172 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 163 163 158 156 151 137 140 136 132 132 131 134 149 150 163 154 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 7 5 700-500 MB RH 69 67 68 68 67 72 71 76 71 71 62 63 57 59 53 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 18 19 20 21 25 25 23 20 18 17 19 20 20 20 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 28 23 27 27 10 40 12 17 -17 12 -2 35 14 7 -7 3 14 200 MB DIV 22 20 34 32 18 45 21 11 14 63 60 42 66 24 10 49 12 700-850 TADV 2 0 5 5 3 5 17 5 10 3 -6 2 1 0 4 8 11 LAND (KM) 296 374 432 351 272 163 84 -29 -97 -117 -115 -99 -74 31 -20 -40 -208 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.2 23.8 24.5 25.1 26.3 27.4 28.3 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.6 93.1 93.5 94.1 94.6 95.6 96.4 97.0 97.4 97.7 97.8 97.8 97.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 1 1 5 5 6 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 48 67 76 72 77 62 29 44 14 8 8 17 29 43 53 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 2. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 9. 8. 3. 0. -2. -0. 1. -1. -2. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 26. 39. 46. 45. 38. 32. 24. 22. 19. 16. 12. 16. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.6 92.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.77 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.42 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.81 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 44.3% 30.8% 22.3% 13.5% 29.5% 30.3% 33.4% Logistic: 21.4% 59.3% 48.3% 39.3% 19.9% 57.8% 53.7% 41.5% Bayesian: 16.5% 35.1% 24.0% 20.9% 3.6% 15.2% 5.8% 7.7% Consensus: 17.5% 46.2% 34.4% 27.5% 12.3% 34.2% 30.0% 27.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 7( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 53 60 66 79 86 67 42 32 28 27 27 29 23 25 26 18HR AGO 40 39 46 53 59 72 79 60 35 25 21 20 20 22 16 18 19 12HR AGO 40 37 36 43 49 62 69 50 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 49 56 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT