* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * KENNETH EP132017 08/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 70 71 73 72 68 62 55 51 46 42 36 31 27 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 65 67 70 71 73 72 68 62 55 51 46 42 36 31 27 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 71 71 68 62 54 47 41 36 32 29 25 23 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 1 3 5 6 12 7 13 17 21 26 26 26 29 34 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 3 0 4 -1 0 -1 -2 2 3 5 2 2 SHEAR DIR 26 12 93 262 209 199 239 198 202 208 211 213 232 225 245 237 240 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.7 25.8 24.6 24.5 23.5 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.4 23.5 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 138 134 130 121 108 107 97 92 93 92 90 89 94 95 96 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 63 61 63 61 62 55 47 44 39 36 34 36 36 35 31 30 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 19 21 20 20 18 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -8 -4 11 20 18 23 43 34 38 6 2 4 0 0 10 -2 200 MB DIV 22 16 28 29 29 57 17 5 13 19 13 17 -11 4 -2 -6 -9 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 3 4 5 10 10 11 9 12 13 7 2 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1787 1835 1888 1931 1979 2023 2035 1960 1894 1836 1812 1739 1732 1667 1790 1835 1830 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.9 20.3 21.9 23.5 25.0 26.2 27.1 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.9 128.0 129.0 130.0 130.9 132.3 133.3 134.2 135.1 135.8 136.5 137.0 137.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -17. -20. -24. -28. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 7. 3. -3. -10. -14. -19. -23. -29. -34. -38. -47. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.1 126.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 353.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132017 KENNETH 08/20/17 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING