* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/07/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 57 62 71 77 77 68 61 63 66 69 71 74 75 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 44 33 44 50 50 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 45 33 42 51 56 42 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 8 3 6 7 6 14 17 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 -4 0 -2 0 -2 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 280 290 255 288 19 18 7 1 21 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.9 29.9 30.3 30.1 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 165 168 172 167 171 171 150 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 153 154 159 161 172 156 164 160 139 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 12 10 11 10 8 9 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 67 68 67 71 72 73 78 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 14 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 23 27 32 31 13 30 33 42 36 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 48 49 69 59 23 41 48 32 31 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -1 -7 -2 -5 -11 -19 -7 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 123 168 185 61 -61 -35 180 258 91 -99 -293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.0 21.0 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.8 85.9 87.0 88.1 90.2 92.2 94.1 96.2 98.3 100.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 64 71 76 44 38 30 50 46 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 28. 32. 35. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 2. -8. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 22. 31. 37. 37. 28. 21. 23. 26. 29. 31. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.8 83.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.78 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 28.8% 17.9% 8.7% 7.9% 15.1% 24.2% 38.9% Logistic: 9.8% 53.6% 33.2% 28.5% 18.8% 50.8% 70.0% 80.3% Bayesian: 6.1% 21.0% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 13.8% 21.5% 66.2% Consensus: 7.8% 34.5% 18.2% 12.7% 9.0% 26.6% 38.6% 61.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 48 52 44 33 44 50 50 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 39 28 39 45 45 30 24 23 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 32 21 32 38 38 23 17 16 15 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT