* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/28/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 56 54 54 50 46 40 36 29 25 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 56 54 54 50 46 40 36 29 25 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 53 51 46 43 39 35 32 28 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 6 10 7 4 3 4 2 6 3 10 4 15 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 -5 -1 -2 0 -4 -2 -4 0 -1 3 3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 15 18 359 335 337 324 277 213 139 91 167 206 199 223 221 224 222 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.0 24.1 24.1 23.6 23.1 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.1 22.1 22.3 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 126 124 124 113 104 104 98 92 88 88 87 81 81 81 86 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 72 72 70 68 67 62 58 53 47 43 38 36 33 32 28 25 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 23 21 22 20 20 18 17 15 14 12 10 8 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 38 56 64 68 66 50 63 62 53 30 23 -13 -18 -27 -34 200 MB DIV 23 24 29 33 36 23 0 10 -8 -4 -3 3 -1 4 -7 -8 -18 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -6 -8 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 0 0 1 2 3 2 -2 LAND (KM) 882 901 929 974 1026 1115 1246 1412 1568 1664 1709 1759 1804 1535 1685 1735 1799 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.9 21.5 21.9 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.2 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.3 119.1 120.0 120.9 123.0 125.2 127.4 129.4 131.1 132.6 134.0 135.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 6 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -28. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -6. -10. -11. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -6. -10. -14. -20. -24. -31. -35. -41. -45. -50. -55. -60. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.5 117.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/28/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/28/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##