* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 43 43 43 40 35 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 43 43 43 40 35 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 44 43 39 35 31 28 24 21 19 18 17 16 16 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 5 6 9 16 28 31 32 22 9 12 9 8 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 0 -2 -3 -6 -4 -7 -1 7 4 1 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 338 301 280 239 165 232 267 286 293 296 291 260 222 209 169 149 154 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.3 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.4 26.4 26.1 25.9 26.5 26.8 27.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 133 133 132 125 128 126 123 126 126 123 122 128 131 137 141 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 50 49 44 40 37 34 31 26 23 22 26 29 33 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 14 15 12 9 8 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 5 4 7 7 7 11 10 15 14 14 19 23 16 23 14 200 MB DIV -15 10 24 22 17 -6 -1 -6 5 0 -24 -36 -33 -39 -33 -14 3 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -2 0 0 2 3 3 2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 2221 2292 2364 2291 2193 2020 1858 1697 1534 1378 1230 1092 970 836 751 701 659 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.0 17.0 16.8 16.4 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.8 131.9 132.9 133.8 134.7 136.2 137.6 139.0 140.5 142.0 143.5 145.0 146.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 9 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 3 4 3 1 3 1 0 2 1 0 0 2 3 6 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -16. -16. -17. -14. -13. -12. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -2. -2. -5. -10. -15. -22. -28. -31. -32. -31. -29. -27. -25. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 130.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 307.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.7% 3.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 8.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##