* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/21/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 29 28 28 25 23 20 24 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 25 23 20 24 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 26 24 21 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 24 25 29 32 36 28 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 2 0 -1 7 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 220 211 215 213 213 218 232 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.9 26.4 26.4 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 117 118 118 123 128 129 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.7 -55.1 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 42 41 39 37 38 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 14 15 13 14 13 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 19 17 14 12 1 2 -15 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 10 18 25 28 -9 13 35 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1148 1051 954 858 763 559 347 190 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.6 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.9 144.8 145.7 146.6 147.5 149.5 151.8 154.4 157.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 11 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -6. -11. -17. -23. -27. -29. -30. -30. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -7. -10. -12. -15. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -22. -23. -26. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.6 143.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/21/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 288.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/21/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##