* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 52 58 66 71 71 70 67 63 63 62 58 58 58 57 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 52 58 66 71 71 70 67 63 63 62 58 58 58 57 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 47 50 57 62 63 61 57 55 55 54 52 50 49 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 5 7 9 11 9 13 9 3 4 6 5 3 0 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 0 -1 -3 1 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 124 120 105 100 115 160 183 210 223 292 345 312 291 51 42 164 304 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.4 26.3 26.8 26.4 25.7 25.9 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 145 146 148 144 141 138 135 129 127 132 126 119 121 119 118 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 77 77 73 67 63 56 50 47 44 41 40 38 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 19 20 22 22 24 23 22 22 24 20 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 4 14 28 44 41 48 55 79 86 97 88 74 75 63 66 37 29 200 MB DIV 15 36 30 45 56 39 46 11 26 19 -13 -7 -14 -12 -12 7 12 700-850 TADV 3 0 -3 -4 0 3 4 6 0 -3 -3 -2 -1 1 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 970 1008 1028 1053 1087 1198 1326 1507 1723 1935 2146 2289 2033 2001 1744 1765 1651 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.6 16.0 16.2 16.2 15.9 15.7 15.5 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.2 114.1 115.1 116.1 118.4 120.9 123.5 126.1 128.7 131.2 133.6 136.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 7 7 6 2 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 14 13 17 24 24 8 7 8 1 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 11. 9. 9. 10. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 31. 31. 30. 27. 23. 23. 22. 18. 18. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.2 112.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 24.3% 22.7% 17.0% 12.4% 18.6% 17.4% 16.3% Logistic: 4.8% 14.7% 5.7% 2.9% 0.8% 3.8% 5.3% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 10.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 16.4% 10.1% 6.8% 4.5% 7.7% 7.6% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##