* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032017 06/21/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 44 41 34 29 26 25 24 23 22 22 22 22 23 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 44 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 41 40 38 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 25 20 20 23 15 11 17 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 237 227 202 192 202 202 193 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 27.4 27.7 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 149 147 149 150 130 134 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 127 128 127 128 128 112 115 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -52.1 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 5 13 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 59 56 56 54 52 50 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 24 24 23 20 14 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 64 67 77 58 5 -34 -57 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 127 77 47 48 58 9 23 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 0 -1 2 4 0 13 11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 326 279 247 205 146 -14 -240 -407 -604 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.7 27.1 27.7 28.3 29.9 31.9 34.0 36.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.3 91.8 92.3 92.8 93.4 92.7 90.9 89.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 16 15 14 13 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -14. -20. -24. -26. -27. -28. -28. -28. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -6. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.2 90.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 CINDY 06/21/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.19 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.53 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 16.1% 10.0% 7.1% 6.2% 8.3% 8.5% 6.3% Logistic: 1.5% 2.7% 1.6% 1.3% 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.4% 3.9% 2.8% 2.1% 3.3% 2.9% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 CINDY 06/21/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 CINDY 06/21/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 44 44 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 42 35 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 30 23 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT