* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 118 116 111 96 79 60 43 31 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 119 118 116 111 96 79 60 43 31 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 118 116 112 106 88 68 50 36 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 0 4 8 8 10 17 25 35 34 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 0 0 9 12 6 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 177 168 186 205 220 215 239 251 250 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.2 27.6 26.1 25.1 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 146 147 140 124 112 106 103 101 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 65 64 63 61 56 53 46 38 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 22 21 21 19 15 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -8 -9 -16 -18 -40 -30 1 -15 -13 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 89 69 49 67 75 19 -12 -15 -23 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -1 1 1 4 8 3 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1014 1065 1127 1142 1169 1182 1158 1087 1047 1023 1001 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.6 19.8 20.8 21.4 21.7 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 117.0 118.2 119.2 120.2 121.6 122.3 122.5 122.6 122.6 122.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 8 6 4 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 24 28 23 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -13. -24. -35. -44. -52. -59. -63. -65. -67. -69. -72. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -7. -13. -16. -20. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. 1. -4. -19. -36. -55. -72. -84. -96.-100.-103.-106.-108.-109.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.6 115.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.04 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 600.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.24 -1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.6% 24.8% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 26.6% 9.0% 11.5% 11.3% 3.8% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 41.8% 3.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 29.3% 12.3% 10.0% 3.8% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##