* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/07/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 75 69 64 57 51 46 46 45 46 49 55 57 63 64 57 V (KT) LAND 85 81 75 69 64 57 51 46 46 45 46 49 55 57 63 64 57 V (KT) LGEM 85 84 81 77 74 68 60 52 46 39 35 33 35 41 49 54 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 35 37 35 37 42 49 42 45 37 25 15 17 26 40 52 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -6 -6 -1 1 1 -2 4 5 7 4 1 3 3 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 347 347 357 352 345 352 7 18 13 12 352 324 270 241 246 239 240 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.9 29.2 28.9 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 141 144 149 153 153 152 147 147 153 148 138 132 125 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 113 115 118 121 125 128 129 129 124 124 128 125 116 112 106 100 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 5 700-500 MB RH 51 48 46 42 41 41 48 53 55 58 62 64 60 55 48 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 17 17 20 20 19 21 22 21 21 23 25 31 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -45 -32 -11 5 9 21 45 123 157 155 146 110 99 118 151 114 200 MB DIV -41 -13 1 -28 -26 10 -32 45 32 40 43 36 52 81 53 30 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 -3 -3 0 0 14 19 23 11 6 5 13 22 9 -27 LAND (KM) 980 969 957 928 896 831 805 822 845 891 949 1025 991 922 929 983 921 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.5 25.9 25.7 26.0 26.5 27.2 27.9 28.7 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.2 65.1 65.0 64.9 64.8 65.1 65.7 66.2 66.8 67.3 67.7 67.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 27 30 37 38 37 38 41 41 38 32 19 12 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -21. -24. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -18. -26. -32. -34. -36. -36. -32. -28. -24. -21. -21. -24. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. -0. 2. 2. -0. -1. 1. 3. 10. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -21. -28. -34. -39. -39. -40. -39. -36. -30. -28. -22. -21. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 27.4 65.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 712.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.19 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 5( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 81 75 69 64 57 51 46 46 45 46 49 55 57 63 64 57 18HR AGO 85 84 78 72 67 60 54 49 49 48 49 52 58 60 66 67 60 12HR AGO 85 82 81 75 70 63 57 52 52 51 52 55 61 63 69 70 63 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 70 63 57 52 52 51 52 55 61 63 69 70 63 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 59 53 48 48 47 48 51 57 59 65 66 59 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT