* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/07/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 99 96 91 81 69 54 35 31 27 27 27 30 31 32 29 V (KT) LAND 105 101 99 96 91 81 69 54 35 31 27 27 27 30 31 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 105 99 95 90 84 74 66 55 44 36 29 24 22 20 19 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 10 12 23 27 27 38 36 46 40 38 36 36 33 34 29 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -3 2 4 8 13 10 10 3 5 1 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 246 247 229 227 233 221 249 239 232 242 240 237 238 233 241 243 249 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.4 26.9 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 148 141 133 128 121 132 139 142 148 145 148 152 154 156 158 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 129 121 114 107 101 110 116 118 124 123 125 127 128 130 131 134 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.4 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -51.2 -51.7 -52.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 3 4 1 2 1 3 3 6 7 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 65 59 47 35 28 19 16 20 23 27 34 35 35 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 39 40 39 36 35 30 21 20 17 14 13 12 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 51 47 66 57 55 80 80 107 65 80 77 88 54 45 31 25 12 200 MB DIV 57 43 39 46 46 108 83 27 -17 -18 -9 -5 -2 -13 4 -3 -3 700-850 TADV 16 16 19 20 24 -1 -3 -26 -20 -25 -16 -7 -3 -3 -3 -4 -8 LAND (KM) 67 51 47 77 71 65 140 259 384 501 436 335 274 243 226 199 182 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.6 29.5 30.4 31.2 32.2 32.4 31.9 31.0 29.8 28.7 27.7 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.7 80.2 80.6 80.6 80.6 79.6 78.1 76.6 75.8 75.7 76.1 76.8 77.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 38 27 24 19 15 6 12 35 26 34 37 39 43 46 49 50 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -2. -4. -10. -18. -26. -34. -39. -43. -45. -48. -50. -51. -52. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -20. -21. -21. -19. -18. -16. -13. -11. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -12. -24. -27. -33. -38. -40. -39. -40. -40. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -14. -24. -36. -51. -70. -74. -78. -78. -78. -75. -74. -73. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 27.7 79.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 389.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 21( 42) 12( 49) 8( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 27 8( 33) 0( 33) 0( 33) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 101 99 96 91 81 69 54 35 31 27 27 27 30 31 32 29 18HR AGO 105 104 102 99 94 84 72 57 38 34 30 30 30 33 34 35 32 12HR AGO 105 102 101 98 93 83 71 56 37 33 29 29 29 32 33 34 31 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 90 80 68 53 34 30 26 26 26 29 30 31 28 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 76 64 49 30 26 22 22 22 25 26 27 24 IN 6HR 105 101 92 86 83 77 65 50 31 27 23 23 23 26 27 28 25 IN 12HR 105 101 99 90 84 80 68 53 34 30 26 26 26 29 30 31 28