* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 121 120 117 114 103 93 80 66 52 45 43 43 44 46 47 44 V (KT) LAND 120 121 120 117 114 103 93 80 66 52 45 43 43 44 46 47 44 V (KT) LGEM 120 122 120 116 109 94 82 71 61 52 47 43 40 39 40 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 12 13 22 24 31 30 34 33 33 30 29 26 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 -1 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 1 0 1 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 281 259 261 253 215 230 222 248 244 237 236 240 233 222 207 232 264 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.3 27.8 27.8 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 161 152 141 133 133 142 137 137 148 151 153 152 153 155 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 148 143 133 121 112 111 117 113 114 123 126 128 127 128 130 134 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.1 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 4 4 1 1 1 3 4 7 8 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 71 71 62 52 43 37 32 37 45 52 52 49 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 34 34 36 35 33 29 23 18 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 68 72 54 55 68 47 68 69 100 67 87 96 120 109 68 2 -9 200 MB DIV 54 53 34 26 32 79 130 60 21 -2 -20 18 26 23 2 -14 -15 700-850 TADV 13 8 14 18 23 21 -3 1 -16 -6 -1 2 -1 0 1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 186 101 50 41 34 84 103 174 257 377 480 469 394 323 264 213 167 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.6 27.5 28.5 29.4 31.1 32.0 32.4 32.1 31.2 30.2 29.2 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.3 79.0 79.8 80.2 80.7 80.5 79.2 77.5 76.3 75.6 75.4 75.9 76.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 56 49 42 29 23 19 16 24 35 22 31 42 45 44 45 48 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -2. -9. -19. -31. -41. -51. -56. -59. -62. -65. -67. -68. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -13. -12. -12. -10. -7. -6. -4. -1. 2. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -16. -25. -30. -33. -36. -36. -36. -35. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -3. -6. -17. -27. -40. -54. -68. -75. -77. -77. -76. -74. -73. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 25.7 78.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 335.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 15.5% 8.7% 6.9% 5.8% 3.3% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.2% 4.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 6.6% 3.2% 2.5% 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 33( 55) 30( 69) 25( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 46 22( 58) 3( 59) 0( 59) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 121 120 117 114 103 93 80 66 52 45 43 43 44 46 47 44 18HR AGO 120 119 118 115 112 101 91 78 64 50 43 41 41 42 44 45 42 12HR AGO 120 117 116 113 110 99 89 76 62 48 41 39 39 40 42 43 40 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 107 96 86 73 59 45 38 36 36 37 39 40 37 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 90 80 67 53 39 32 30 30 31 33 34 31 IN 6HR 120 121 112 106 103 97 87 74 60 46 39 37 37 38 40 41 38 IN 12HR 120 121 120 111 105 101 91 78 64 50 43 41 41 42 44 45 42