* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192016 09/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 42 42 40 40 35 30 25 20 21 23 22 22 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 42 42 40 40 35 30 25 20 21 23 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 36 35 33 31 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 10 8 6 12 17 21 28 35 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -6 -4 -4 -4 1 0 2 5 6 4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 281 280 281 296 286 284 263 272 265 267 270 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.2 27.4 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 144 143 141 139 139 140 139 134 137 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 50 49 46 44 43 44 44 48 46 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 11 9 8 9 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 7 10 9 15 1 14 12 10 -11 -12 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 62 77 75 90 85 43 44 31 18 0 -10 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 3 1 1 5 3 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1798 1778 1758 1764 1770 1792 1785 1766 1713 1627 1505 1358 1221 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.7 14.6 15.4 16.1 16.6 16.9 17.0 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.2 140.2 140.2 140.0 139.7 139.1 138.8 138.7 139.0 139.7 140.8 142.2 143.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 23 21 17 14 12 14 15 18 16 10 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -14. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 12. 10. 10. 5. -0. -5. -10. -9. -7. -8. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 140.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192016 NINETEEN 09/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.60 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 21.6% 19.6% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 11.5% Logistic: 2.9% 9.0% 6.0% 2.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 10.6% 8.6% 5.8% 0.8% 0.2% 5.1% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 NINETEEN 09/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##