* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 59 44 36 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 59 44 36 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 58 58 55 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 28 35 49 61 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 10 15 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 232 229 216 226 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.7 25.8 23.6 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 129 121 104 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 129 128 117 99 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 46 39 40 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 30 29 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 73 99 127 119 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 63 72 96 65 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 9 -4 -16 49 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1180 1126 1079 875 798 1210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.1 34.8 36.5 39.0 41.5 46.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.1 58.8 55.5 50.8 46.2 36.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 32 38 44 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 12 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -16. -25. -33. -39. -45. -51. -57. -65. -70. -73. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. -10. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 4. -11. -19. -27. -33. -37. -43. -49. -53. -59. -62. -65. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 33.1 62.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/24/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 61 59 44 36 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 56 58 56 41 33 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 51 36 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT