* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/24/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 62 62 52 31 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 62 62 52 31 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 61 61 49 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 27 38 52 71 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 9 15 11 18 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 231 228 219 221 228 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.1 19.8 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 132 132 124 87 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 125 126 129 120 83 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -50.6 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 46 41 39 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 27 28 29 26 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 57 86 98 127 162 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 68 73 95 91 57 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 12 10 0 -46 41 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1178 1149 1096 1035 842 897 1472 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.3 33.8 35.2 37.3 39.3 44.7 50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.6 61.1 58.6 54.8 50.9 41.9 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 25 31 37 40 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 12 11 10 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 16 CX,CY: 9/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -16. -25. -34. -40. -47. -53. -59. -68. -74. -77. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 7. -3. -24. -33. -39. -43. -49. -54. -60. -68. -73. -76. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.3 63.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/24/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 4.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/24/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/24/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 60 62 62 52 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 57 59 59 49 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 53 43 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT