* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 70 68 67 62 56 50 47 45 42 40 35 33 28 28 27 V (KT) LAND 70 71 70 68 67 62 56 50 47 45 42 40 35 33 28 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 71 68 66 62 57 54 51 49 46 43 39 37 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 7 8 5 6 7 9 15 14 18 26 33 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 1 5 2 1 0 -2 1 -3 -3 -1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 329 356 33 22 11 351 330 267 246 238 245 233 231 226 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 126 130 131 129 130 126 127 126 125 120 120 120 120 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 27 25 24 23 24 25 25 27 30 34 37 38 40 46 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 12 13 14 13 12 13 13 12 13 12 14 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -11 -14 -4 0 5 25 37 46 60 53 36 37 37 38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -32 -31 -9 -13 -5 -35 -3 25 36 11 3 25 37 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 1 2 5 2 0 8 13 12 6 10 9 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1077 1158 1240 1328 1420 1606 1830 2055 2019 1788 1558 1362 1193 1079 984 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.5 123.5 124.6 125.7 128.0 130.6 133.1 135.5 137.7 139.9 141.8 143.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 2 3 3 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -2. -1. -1. -2. -0. -2. -0. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -3. -8. -14. -20. -23. -25. -28. -30. -35. -37. -42. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.1 121.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 823.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.8% 6.3% 0.3% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.3% 2.1% 0.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##