* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 09/01/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 41 41 42 43 45 46 47 45 44 45 46 48 49 50 51 V (KT) LAND 45 42 41 41 42 43 45 46 47 45 44 45 46 48 49 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 39 39 38 38 39 39 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 14 14 13 14 12 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -4 -2 -1 -2 -3 -6 -3 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 236 239 243 258 277 257 296 295 299 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 149 150 149 148 149 150 155 155 155 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 44 45 47 47 43 40 42 41 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 28 36 41 42 36 39 29 13 2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -14 14 27 29 26 -6 0 -17 -10 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 0 -2 0 0 0 3 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 248 310 395 511 608 728 921 1107 1291 1470 1670 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.2 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 156.4 157.5 158.6 159.9 161.2 164.0 166.7 169.1 171.3 173.4 175.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 13 12 11 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 51 43 32 29 54 57 47 39 32 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.8 156.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 09/01/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 343.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 -2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.16 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 17.7% 16.9% 11.9% 9.3% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.5% 6.1% 4.2% 3.2% 0.3% 4.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 09/01/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##