* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/01/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 66 69 75 77 77 78 69 60 54 46 38 30 24 17 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 57 45 34 38 37 39 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 66 46 34 38 40 40 36 32 31 31 31 31 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 19 17 29 37 44 45 27 23 19 11 18 31 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 -4 -1 -1 -1 5 -6 -5 -4 -6 -6 -5 -4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 287 262 245 248 241 228 238 226 201 210 195 177 123 67 37 48 35 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.3 30.7 29.2 28.4 28.3 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 163 169 173 173 157 144 141 145 139 138 139 140 139 139 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 151 158 166 138 123 116 116 109 106 106 106 105 105 105 105 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 7 5 6 3 4 1 1 1 4 3 6 4 6 4 700-500 MB RH 63 65 66 63 61 54 47 53 55 53 55 50 44 37 35 36 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 25 27 29 29 30 34 29 26 23 19 15 12 10 6 850 MB ENV VOR 24 34 38 36 39 43 4 11 24 33 51 18 17 -13 -17 -27 -16 200 MB DIV 56 71 75 61 73 81 54 66 48 36 51 -2 -2 -25 -16 -19 -5 700-850 TADV 17 18 14 21 29 8 24 -4 -11 -3 0 0 -1 0 5 11 6 LAND (KM) 313 190 83 -10 -122 -17 4 112 231 230 249 256 270 270 270 270 270 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 28.0 29.0 30.1 31.1 33.0 34.7 35.9 36.9 37.7 38.0 38.1 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.2 85.5 84.8 83.8 82.8 79.8 76.8 74.5 73.2 72.6 72.2 72.0 71.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 15 13 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 26 45 6 28 20 15 19 13 15 18 25 25 25 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -19. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 8. 14. 6. 1. -4. -10. -16. -19. -21. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 22. 22. 23. 14. 5. -1. -9. -17. -25. -31. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.0 86.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.53 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.62 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 21.2% 11.6% 8.0% 7.3% 10.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 20.4% 11.6% 8.3% 2.4% 6.6% 1.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 14.1% 7.8% 5.6% 3.2% 5.6% 3.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 62 57 45 34 38 37 39 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 58 53 41 30 34 33 35 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 46 34 23 27 26 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 33 22 26 25 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT