* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082016 08/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 45 45 47 47 48 48 48 47 48 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 45 45 47 47 48 48 48 47 48 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 12 9 17 20 29 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 164 187 220 256 264 269 271 252 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 29.2 28.8 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 149 149 149 147 155 149 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 120 119 119 119 127 122 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -54.8 -54.4 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 6 4 6 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 50 49 48 49 50 55 63 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -41 -39 -39 -26 -33 -43 15 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 29 8 -6 0 -7 -6 34 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 4 2 2 3 -5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 361 296 232 190 149 119 234 359 336 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.4 33.7 34.0 34.3 35.1 36.3 37.6 38.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.2 73.8 74.3 74.6 74.9 74.6 73.2 71.0 68.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 4 4 6 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 38 40 43 44 34 35 37 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 23. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 15. 17. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.0 73.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082016 EIGHT 08/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.9% 9.0% 6.2% 5.2% 7.9% 9.4% 7.7% Logistic: 2.7% 9.1% 5.9% 1.7% 0.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 7.7% 5.0% 2.6% 1.9% 3.2% 3.4% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082016 EIGHT 08/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082016 EIGHT 08/29/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 45 45 47 47 48 48 48 47 48 51 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 37 40 43 43 45 45 46 46 46 45 46 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 33 36 39 39 41 41 42 42 42 41 42 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 28 31 31 33 33 34 34 34 33 34 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT