* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 82 84 84 85 87 88 90 90 85 82 78 72 64 55 42 V (KT) LAND 75 79 82 84 84 85 87 88 90 90 85 82 78 72 64 55 42 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 82 83 83 85 86 88 88 85 78 72 65 58 51 44 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 8 11 9 16 14 23 23 19 20 22 17 17 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 6 6 3 0 2 0 3 6 1 0 2 6 10 11 SHEAR DIR 342 5 358 335 353 328 312 285 288 269 262 253 267 289 316 1 46 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.0 26.7 24.9 23.4 22.4 21.3 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 148 145 148 146 143 138 125 123 106 96 90 84 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 124 123 121 119 118 122 121 120 117 107 105 91 83 79 75 74 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.9 -52.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.2 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 39 42 42 39 38 40 42 42 40 36 39 41 48 46 45 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 23 22 22 23 27 28 32 34 33 33 33 31 28 25 18 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -49 -44 -44 -51 -53 -51 -37 -4 2 -21 -48 -71 -86 -106 -78 -41 200 MB DIV -5 -9 1 -1 -5 -5 5 59 8 17 -13 -1 -12 -12 -43 8 -8 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 1 2 9 11 8 2 11 19 32 37 40 55 39 95 LAND (KM) 1718 1730 1709 1680 1652 1615 1588 1567 1487 1406 1348 1334 1396 1532 1697 1769 1506 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.3 30.6 30.9 31.1 31.5 32.0 32.6 33.4 34.4 35.6 37.0 38.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.5 54.8 55.0 55.1 55.2 55.0 54.2 52.9 51.2 49.2 46.6 43.6 40.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 2 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 14 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 31 32 32 28 24 20 13 10 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -17. -21. -24. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 11. 13. 11. 11. 9. 6. 1. -3. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 10. 7. 3. -3. -11. -20. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.9 54.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.74 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 727.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.17 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.18 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 17.0% 11.5% 8.8% 8.1% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 18.3% 16.7% 11.3% 5.0% 9.4% 4.7% 1.4% Bayesian: 3.8% 6.0% 4.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 13.8% 11.0% 7.2% 4.4% 6.6% 1.6% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/28/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 9( 20) 10( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 82 84 84 85 87 88 90 90 85 82 78 72 64 55 42 18HR AGO 75 74 77 79 79 80 82 83 85 85 80 77 73 67 59 50 37 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 73 74 76 77 79 79 74 71 67 61 53 44 31 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 66 68 69 71 71 66 63 59 53 45 36 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT