* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 51 54 62 66 72 71 74 68 70 72 74 75 77 77 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 51 54 47 33 38 38 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 50 52 55 48 33 36 40 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 14 12 7 13 7 9 8 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 2 -1 -5 -3 -4 -1 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 271 286 297 316 306 9 321 21 24 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.9 28.6 29.2 28.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 155 158 159 159 168 146 155 137 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 152 154 154 155 153 161 137 145 127 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 11 9 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 73 73 71 73 75 74 76 79 80 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 14 14 18 16 15 12 12 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 69 55 44 46 31 20 23 42 55 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 34 42 32 48 78 47 42 58 46 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -10 -9 -9 -7 -5 0 -2 -4 -10 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 295 182 91 113 161 -74 -35 50 75 -67 -223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.8 82.4 84.0 85.3 86.5 88.9 91.1 93.2 95.2 97.2 99.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 33 36 38 37 31 27 15 17 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 2. -3. -4. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 9. 17. 21. 27. 26. 29. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. 32. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.3 80.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 16.8% 10.6% 7.3% 6.5% 10.0% 13.4% 27.9% Logistic: 3.8% 23.0% 10.7% 9.8% 7.6% 29.4% 42.0% 66.2% Bayesian: 2.8% 7.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 4.5% 16.2% 77.6% Consensus: 4.1% 15.8% 7.5% 5.7% 4.7% 14.6% 23.9% 57.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/02/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 51 54 47 33 38 38 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 47 48 51 44 30 35 35 30 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 45 38 24 29 29 24 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 31 17 22 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT