* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052016 07/12/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 44 54 64 73 78 80 79 73 72 68 66 66 65 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 44 54 64 73 78 80 79 73 72 68 66 66 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 43 49 56 62 66 65 62 59 56 54 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 9 10 6 11 9 11 7 6 4 3 2 2 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 -1 1 -1 -4 -1 0 0 1 -3 -2 -4 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 39 51 59 45 46 37 24 48 45 46 33 33 313 39 185 279 246 SST (C) 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.3 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.5 25.9 25.3 25.1 24.5 25.4 24.4 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 163 162 158 143 138 135 130 128 122 116 114 108 118 108 112 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -51.8 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 78 76 73 72 71 68 66 68 69 68 69 66 65 61 62 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 20 23 24 26 27 29 29 26 27 25 24 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 7 17 25 33 35 52 57 63 63 80 84 85 83 86 84 61 50 200 MB DIV 48 59 64 60 60 54 20 61 32 40 8 1 1 21 -4 -16 -1 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -3 -2 4 -2 -3 -3 -1 -4 0 0 1 0 4 7 LAND (KM) 492 568 651 743 816 913 1043 1183 1295 1406 1526 1630 1727 1876 2050 2050 1787 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.0 109.9 111.0 112.0 114.2 116.5 118.7 120.7 122.6 124.4 126.2 128.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 36 36 26 9 12 13 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 24. 26. 27. 26. 25. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 18. 21. 20. 15. 15. 12. 10. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 14. 24. 34. 43. 48. 50. 49. 43. 42. 38. 36. 36. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 108.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 FIVE 07/12/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.86 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 21.2% 14.0% 13.6% 0.0% 16.0% 15.4% 17.5% Logistic: 0.7% 5.4% 2.3% 0.7% 0.4% 1.5% 1.4% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 2.8% 9.1% 5.5% 4.8% 0.1% 5.8% 5.6% 7.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 FIVE 07/12/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##