* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/09/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 48 42 36 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 55 48 42 36 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 53 47 41 35 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 10 12 21 26 31 34 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 12 17 19 15 13 10 6 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 235 239 228 214 224 218 241 246 244 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.4 24.3 23.9 23.4 23.8 24.5 24.7 25.0 25.2 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 106 105 101 96 100 108 110 113 115 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 54 48 42 40 37 34 31 31 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 22 21 19 15 11 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 11 1 -6 -6 -13 2 6 25 15 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 41 28 35 31 1 -10 -5 -16 -19 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 17 13 11 17 2 4 0 -1 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1925 1953 1984 2016 2033 1946 1728 1508 1287 1077 868 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.8 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.4 21.2 20.9 20.5 20.0 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.4 132.1 132.8 133.6 134.4 136.2 138.3 140.4 142.5 144.5 146.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -22. -26. -29. -30. -28. -26. -23. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -18. -24. -37. -48. -58. -65. -72. -76. -77. -78. -81. -83. -88. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.2 131.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/09/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 472.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/09/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##