* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042016 07/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 37 45 55 67 81 88 95 101 96 88 82 74 70 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 37 45 55 67 81 88 95 101 96 88 82 74 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 35 40 49 60 72 86 94 89 79 69 58 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 2 5 6 8 8 11 3 6 8 11 18 23 18 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 3 1 -1 -3 -1 -4 -1 -4 -6 0 0 -1 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 163 190 107 94 114 98 78 85 86 134 122 70 64 58 55 35 23 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.5 27.3 26.9 25.9 25.6 23.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 147 145 144 145 147 151 152 150 150 137 133 123 120 102 106 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 -50.9 -51.3 -50.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 73 74 77 79 77 77 78 77 73 71 66 63 61 63 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 19 20 23 27 31 35 40 40 39 39 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -4 -2 6 12 15 25 44 57 67 83 95 104 94 87 78 56 200 MB DIV 39 33 46 67 78 79 90 92 89 81 92 119 24 27 19 21 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 -2 0 0 -3 -5 -7 -3 -1 6 LAND (KM) 955 995 1040 1095 1153 1215 1295 1403 1531 1616 1715 1820 1896 1984 2110 2072 1860 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.3 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.2 111.9 112.7 113.4 115.1 116.8 118.5 120.5 122.5 124.5 126.5 128.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 21 18 18 17 25 41 37 27 31 8 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 18. 22. 28. 33. 30. 26. 23. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 15. 25. 37. 51. 58. 65. 71. 66. 58. 52. 44. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 110.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 FOUR 07/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 20.7% 19.9% 15.0% 0.0% 17.5% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 11.9% 4.7% 2.1% 0.4% 6.0% 8.4% 11.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.5% Consensus: 3.6% 12.4% 8.5% 5.8% 0.2% 7.8% 8.4% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 FOUR 07/07/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##