* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 113 117 119 120 114 106 96 86 77 64 55 46 38 31 23 16 V (KT) LAND 105 113 117 119 120 114 106 96 86 77 64 55 46 38 31 23 16 V (KT) LGEM 105 112 115 115 113 103 90 79 67 54 42 32 26 20 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 3 5 4 6 7 6 9 10 7 9 14 29 33 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 -2 5 12 14 16 20 15 18 14 12 7 5 2 SHEAR DIR 15 337 333 18 32 18 61 44 119 158 185 216 235 246 265 267 252 SST (C) 28.9 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.6 26.9 26.1 25.9 26.0 24.5 24.2 24.3 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 149 150 153 151 132 124 122 123 107 104 106 109 111 113 114 117 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 68 69 68 64 63 65 61 55 45 38 33 27 24 22 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 32 32 34 34 34 33 31 30 25 22 18 15 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 21 29 28 28 29 39 41 63 63 72 50 51 39 40 30 31 37 200 MB DIV 62 100 96 78 65 48 44 66 60 43 20 22 0 -5 -15 -9 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 1 5 8 11 26 25 17 7 6 7 4 0 LAND (KM) 1445 1501 1564 1618 1677 1793 1873 1953 2048 2148 2052 1871 1674 1473 1273 1099 915 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.4 20.2 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.5 122.6 123.6 124.6 126.5 128.3 130.0 131.8 133.5 135.2 136.9 138.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 34 22 25 31 26 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -6. -15. -23. -30. -37. -43. -47. -50. -52. -55. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -4. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 12. 14. 15. 9. 1. -9. -19. -28. -41. -50. -59. -67. -74. -82. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.2 120.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 8.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 365.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.8% 34.8% 30.3% 26.0% 18.8% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 31.3% 30.4% 20.2% 17.5% 7.9% 5.6% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 54.6% 7.9% 2.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 41.9% 24.4% 17.6% 15.3% 8.9% 8.0% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/05/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##