* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 06/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 39 40 45 44 44 44 42 41 41 41 43 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 39 40 45 44 44 44 42 41 41 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 37 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 10 17 21 26 31 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 298 276 288 311 310 324 326 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.5 23.6 23.5 24.1 23.1 22.6 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 109 96 96 100 95 92 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 96 93 84 84 88 85 84 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.8 -57.8 -57.7 -57.9 -58.1 -58.1 -58.1 -58.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 59 59 51 48 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 7 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -7 4 5 23 52 27 38 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 6 16 9 9 -12 -23 -24 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -7 -1 3 0 -1 0 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 183 287 391 516 604 750 938 1172 1345 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.7 35.9 36.1 36.2 36.3 36.2 35.8 35.2 34.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.7 72.6 71.4 70.0 68.5 64.9 61.0 56.8 52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 13 15 17 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. -22. -25. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 15. 14. 14. 14. 12. 11. 11. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 35.7 73.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 06/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.59 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 9.5% 6.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.5% 2.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 06/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 06/03/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 35 38 39 40 45 44 44 44 42 41 41 41 43 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 36 37 38 43 42 42 42 40 39 39 39 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 32 33 34 39 38 38 38 36 35 35 35 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 26 27 32 31 31 31 29 28 28 28 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT