* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 94 83 74 66 51 36 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 94 83 74 66 51 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 92 80 69 59 42 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 29 35 36 42 49 68 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 26 24 16 2 3 -3 -3 -3 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 237 245 249 250 250 242 240 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.2 27.4 26.5 25.7 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 148 147 139 130 122 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 5 5 4 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 66 63 65 61 59 56 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 23 20 21 20 16 11 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 3 2 7 12 20 41 24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 156 84 73 57 82 81 90 59 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 29 33 33 26 27 26 21 21 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 649 576 508 401 295 143 -52 -313 -571 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.3 18.3 19.3 20.3 22.4 24.6 27.0 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.1 110.0 109.7 109.4 108.4 107.1 105.8 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 21 18 14 13 10 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -14. -22. -30. -35. -38. -40. -41. -42. -43. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -18. -26. -29. -33. -41. -44. -48. -53. -58. -64. -68. -67. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -14. -26. -33. -34. -33. -31. -29. -26. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -22. -31. -38. -54. -69. -85.-101.-108.-113.-117.-121.-126.-130.-131.-130. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.3 110.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/26/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##